Follow polling changes and their impact on the Electoral College for the 2012 US Presidential Election at 270 to Win.
Follow polling changes and their impact on the Electoral College for the 2012 US Presidential Election at 270 to Win.
Posted by John Slider on 05/04/2012 at 09:21 AM in Democracy, Election, Voting | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
"The Moral Side of the News" is streamed live on Sunday evenings at 9:30pm EST at WHAS Radio. Here are the topics for the upcoming broadcast:
TOPIC 1: Kentucky prisons free nearly 1,000 inmates early
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WHAS11) - Kentucky prisons are a little less crowded tonight, after almost 1,000 inmates were released statewide Tuesday. It is all in an effort to save money.
Kentucky House Bill 463 mandated the prisoners’ release in an effort to save the Commonwealth $400 million over the next ten years.
But some people think that freeing so many prisoners will not come without serious costs to society.
Dozens of buses left prisons statewide this morning, headed for the Louisville Greyhound Bus Terminal. Each was loaded with prisoners who were released in mass at least six months early.
Decarlo Robeson was one of more than 150 prisoners originally convicted in Jefferson county who returned to the bus station today.
“I think it's just a blessing. I get to see my family,” Robeson said. “I didn't get to make New Years or Christmas, but I'm happy. I’m blessed to be free.”
The release of 939 state prisoners six months early will save Kentucky at least $10 million dollars since each inmate costs the state more than $60 a day to incarcerate.
Jefferson County Commonwealth's Attorney David Stengel says spending money on prisons is the best investment Kentucky can make.
“Incarceration, oddly enough, does work, but we just apparently can't afford it,” Stengel said.
Stengel says that there are already alternative sentencing programs and other options aimed at keeping all but the worst criminals out of prison.
“By the time they end up inside a hard cell, they've earned it. Now to see them coming out even six months early bothers me. It bothers all the prosecutors. It bothers the public, I'm sure,” Stengel said.
“I'm a repeat offender because every time I get out, I ain't got nothing to go to except my family, who's got burdens of their own, you know. They ain't got nothing for you once you get out,” said an inmate who did not want to be named.
The inmates released Tuesday, some who have been behind bars a decade or more, enter a job market already with few openings.
They also all have felony records, making it even more difficult to find employment. That is why agencies like the Healing Place and Goodwill Industries are stepping in to help out.
“We can't do nothing about them being released. They've already been released. So we need to assist them finding work,” Kim Colbert of Goodwill Industries.
The inmates released who were convicted in Jefferson County included robbers, kidnappers and sex offenders.
Officials say many of those convicted of lesser crimes and are eligible for release have already been paroled in an effort to ease overcrowding.
WATCH STORY: http://www.whas11.com/home/1000-inmates-to-be-released-early-136575878.html
QUESTION: What are your thoughts on the state releasing inmates to save money?
WE WILL ALSO MENTION THE FOLLOWING STORY: Gatewood Galbraith dead at 64
(WHAS11) -- Gatewood Galbraith, a "perennial candidate because Kentucky has perennial problems" has died, his 2011 running mate disclosed on Wednesday.
"Dear Friends I have just been notified that Gatewood passed away last night," Dea Riley posted on her Facebook page, "I am heading to Lexington to be with his family. Please say a prayer for his family and friends and all those who loved him."
Friends of Galbraith also confirmed his death.
A Lexington trial attorney, Galbraith's nine unsuccessful attempts at statewide office from 1983 to 2011 garnered much attention for his bold statements and views, particularly on the legalization of marijuana.
Galbraith also sought more investment in Kentucky education, responsible mining policies and an end to a "good old boy" system in Frankfort.
He complained that Kentucky’s systems were dysfunctional.
As a Reform Party candidate, Galbraith received 15.9 % of the vote in the 1999 gubernatorial election. He also ran for agriculture commissioner, attorney general and for Congress. Galbraith received 8.9 percent of the vote in the 2011 gubernatorial election.
Galbraith was 64-years-old. He was divorced and is survived by three grown daughters.
http://www.whas11.com/community/blogs/political-blog/Gatewood-Galbraith-dead-136659733.html
TOPIC 2: Iowa Caucus Results: Romney Edges Santorum by 8 Votes
Mitt Romney won the first presidential preference contest of 2012 by a mere eight votes Tuesday, narrowly edging out a surging Rick Santorum in the Iowa Caucuses.
The two men -- neither of whom was expected as recently as a month ago to win -- ran neck and neck and finished in a virtual tie. The second place finish capped a remarkable rise in popularity for Santorum, who had focused his entire campaign and shoestring budget on Iowa.
Romney finished second in Iowa in 2008, but had focused his 2012 campaign on other early primary and caucus states. In this cycle he received exactly six votes less than he did in 2008.
In third place was Rep. Ron Paul, the Libertarian leaning Texan on his third and most inspired run for the presidency.
Read analysis of the Iowa results and whether Santorum can carry his momentum to other states.
There were some reporting irregularities from local party committees that dragged the election outcome into the wee hours of Wednesday morning.
Both candidates gave speeches earlier in the night that sounded victorious. ABC News projected that 123,000 people voted in the Iowa contest, the largest turnout for a Republican caucus. Romney got 30,015 votes and Santorum received 30,007.
Santorum was boosted by evangelical Christians, an influential group in the state, and voters who made their decision in just the last few days. A Des Moines Register poll Saturday found that as many as four in 10 Republican voters in Iowa were still undecided.
CONTINUE READING: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iowa-caucus-results-mitt-romney-defeats-rick-santorum-8-votes/story?id=15283406
RELATED STORIES…
Romney, Santorum on top as GOP race shifts to New Hampshire
http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/04/politics/gop-presidential-race/index.html?hpt=hp_t1
Michele Bachmann Drops Out of Presidential Race
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/01/bachmann-drops-out-of-presidential-race/
Rick Perry Moves Forward, ‘Here We Come South Carolina’
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/01/rick-perry-moves-forward-here-we-come-south-carolina/
Santorum Surge Brings Ethics Questions
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/santorum-surge-brings-ethics-questions/story?id=15287424
QUESTION: What are your thoughts on the Iowa Caucus results and the latest developments in the GOP race?
Posted by John Slider on 01/06/2012 at 09:59 AM in Election, Government, Justice System, Politics, Voting | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
What is your list of the top ten events of 2010. Here is my top ten list. Many "events" in my list are multiple events - but events that are related.
This is not a list of the top ten most covered news stories of 2010. I invite your comments.
The "Feel Good" story of 2010 was the rescue of the mine workers in Chile. This event was over-covered by the news media. It's lasting effect will be the high number of sermon illustrations that grew from it.
Posted by John Slider on 12/31/2010 at 11:08 AM in Economy, Election, Government, Haiti, Health, Health Care, Health Insurance, Immigration, Justice System, Legislation, Pakistan, Politics, Supreme Court, Taxes, Terrorism, Voting | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Before I answer the question, let me refer you to two sites that give an interesting look at recent elections. Politico and the New York Times both provide interesting maps of the 2010 and recent elections that show where the strength of both major parties are located in the country.
Here are two significant maps that I have drawn from these sources that will help me answer the question posed. First, the 2008 Presidential election by county shows that the Democratic Party vote was isolated primarily in urban areas:
The second map shows the results for the 2010 election for the House of Representatives. This map looks similar to the previous map, again showing that the Democratic Party is being isolated in urbanized areas:
A local (Louisville, KY) radio talk show host asked the question recently, "Can the Republicans win in Louisville?" His observation was that if the Republican Party could ever win in Louisville, 2010 should have been the year. There was a national and state-wide trending toward conservatives and Republicans and the Repblicans had fielded a good candidate for mayor.
What happened?
Louisville returned the liberal Democrat John Yarmuth to the House of Representatives, elected a Democratic mayor, Greg Fischer, and increased the number of Democrats on the Louisville Metro Council.
What we are seeing, I believe, is an increasing political division in America - Urban, on the one hand; and Rural/Suburban, on the other hand.
Let me first say that my use of the term "Urban" is sometimes a code word for "blacks" or African-Americans. I am not suggesting this at all.
I shall take Louisville as an example of other urban areas. Certainly, it is in urban areas where there is greater racial diversity in America. Certain parts of Louisville, in fact, have a majority population of ethnic minorities. There is also a higher concentration of lower income persons and families in urban areas.
HOWEVER, urban areas also tend to have a higher concentration of upper income persons who live in cities for the many amenities. There is a wider separation of poor and wealthy in the urban areas of Louisville - the city has the very poor and the very wealthy. Both of these groups tend to support Democratic politicians and liberal policies. Other groups that tend to vote liberal and Democrat also locate in the city.
In contrast, middle class families in Louisville tend to locate in the suburbs and in the surrounding counties. This group tends to be more conservative and Republican. This can be seen easily in the make-up of the Louisville Metro Council.
Can Republicans Win in the Cities; or Can Democrats Win Anywhere Else?
It will be very difficult, if not impossible, for either party to change this situation especially in a mid-term election. The only chance that either party has to change this trend is to have a transformational Presidential candidate that can shift votes significantly - that is, who can carry enough voters in either direction.
President Obama was not such a candidate. Though he did move many staes into the Democrat column in 2008, the margin between the two candidates was less than 5% in most states (see the cream colored areas below) The President was unable to sustain his leadership into the 2010 midterms.
(This is a map of states and electoral votes. The cream colored states are those in which the margin between the two candidates was 5% or less)
Posted by John Slider on 11/07/2010 at 07:55 PM in Election | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
You may not have noticed, but there is an election tomorrow (November 2). I shall take this opportunity to add my voice to the noise.
Predictions:
2010 Senate Party Affiliation
First, I am predicting that Republicans will pick up seven seats in the Senate. Currently the 2010 Senate has 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats. The balance in the 2011 Senate will be 49 Democrats, 48 Republicans, and 3 Independents. At least two (if not all three) Independents will caucus with the Democrats, helping the Democrats retain the leadership of the Senate. In chosing leadership, there is no need in the Senate for a majority, only a plurality. In addition, ties are broken by the Senate President who is Vice President Biden.
Predicted 2011 Senate Party Affiliation
2010 House Party Affiliation
Second, I predict that the Republicans will gain 45-55 seats in the House of Representatives. The current party balance in the House is Democrats 255, Republicans 178, and 2 vacant seats. I predict that the 2011 House of Representatives will have 228 Republicans and 207 Democrats, giving the Republicans control of the House.
Predicted 2011 House Party Affiliation
Observations:
First, power will be truly balanced at the federal level. President Obama and the Democrats will not be able to advance the President's agenda; but Republicans will not be able to turn back previously passed legislation. The Republicans will have a majority in the House that will allow them to have a platform to advance their agenda. Neither party will have a "super" majority (60 votes) in the Senate. The President will have the veto that will be "protected" based on party affiliation.
Of significance, we must be aware that laws concerning taxes must originate in the House of Representatives - the Republican stronghold (US Constitution, Article 1, Section 7.
Second, President Obama and the Democrats misinterpreted the results of the 2008 election as a mandate for their agenda. Let us look quickly at the election and draw some conclusions:
Third, there are several social and fiscal issues on local and state ballots. The votes on these social issues will correctly show the direction of the country - liberal or conservative.
Warning:
I have one warning as a conservative to the Republican Party. Do not misinterpret this election as pro-Republican. This election will be a TEMPORARY granting of power to the Republicans. The United States is a right-of-center country - not a Republican country. The agenda that has a mandate is for accounability of elected officials. There is a disatisfaction with career and isolated politians. People want more local control, fiscally responsible leaders, and their voices heard.
Posted by John Slider on 11/01/2010 at 09:54 AM in Election, Politics | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Posted by John Slider on 10/31/2010 at 10:00 PM in Conservatism, Election, Liberals, Politics, Race | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
By Bishop David Kendall, The Free Methodist Church
Another group looks to Jesus for a kind of tipping point support. The arguments are quite compelling as they are, but just to clinch matters, here’s a saying from the Bible, attributed to Jesus. For them, Jesus spreads on a little frosting to make things sweeter.
A third group comprised of some of the most active currently on the political scene believe in absolute truth. They also believe they have found absolute truth on most matters that are before an unsuspecting or deceived public. For these activists Jesus steps up as the Ultimate Sponsor of their views. He who is the way, the truth and the life obviously would vote this way or for this person.
For Christ Followers the first two groups have it all wrong. The Lord and Master of all has much to say about almost everything. If he is who we claim then we must not treat him as though he has only “religious” or “spiritual” advice for any who might be interested. No, he is the smartest person we know. As such, we who follow him should do just that—follow him and embrace his wisdom as he gives it and as it applies to whatever the issues might be. We can count on him for more than an endorsement of our already good ideas.
For Christ Followers the third group is undoubtedly correct in that truth is, well, real or true—in some solid and objective way. They are also right to insist that it is possible to know the truth, and they no doubt affirm that Jesus embodies truth and wants to lead all who will follow to the truth. But we must take care that we actually follow him and must guard against remaking him to suit some party-line.
I’ve thinking about what sort of Voter’s Guide Jesus would write for us and offer to us as we approach November 2. Before I give you an outline of what I think might be on such a guide, let me warn you, that many will be disappointed by it. They will be disappointed because the candidates and issues at center stage do not claim the attention and importance for Jesus that they may for us. In reading a guide of his making, we will no doubt sense that he offers it with other priorities and concerns in mind than we often have when we think (or fail to think) about political, electoral matters. You are warned. So, here goes.
First, two general observations about what would guide the specific items Jesus would recommend to the electorate. To begin, I would not expect very many, if any, detailed action plans. This is so for two reasons: first, the most important issues are complex and addressing them is often not reducible to one simple “action plan” (see below for examples). Second, all the time Jesus is more interested in moving us to full maturity, to help us to grow up in him, to realize our full potential as children, servants and co-laborers with him. Growing up and reaching maturity requires the ability to think, to choose courses of action, to develop/express faith, and to act on conviction — all of which works best when we do not see everything as clearly as we might hope and yet must act with courage and resolve. Maturity and fullness comes most often in such ways.
Second, I would expect a thorough going Kingdom Perspective since "the Kingdom " is the gospel summary of Jesus’ message and ministry. A Kingdom Perspective embraces the whole world, and seeks his will done everywhere, not just here. Further, his Kingdom is founded on righteousness, or justice, and love so that no one will go without, and no one will be deprived. What this means, among other things, is that a partisan or parochial policy (addressing only a part to the neglect of the whole focus) will nearly always be incomplete and inadequate when assessed in light of Jesus’ Kingdom. Consequently, policies that aim only or exclusively at one nation's well being will also fall short of a full Kingdom Perspective. You can see by this Kingdom Criteria how complex matters really are. For example, we must protect our borders—not only or primarily to defend our sovereign territory but also to defend people and families, but not in ways that make it impossible or unlikely to care for strangers and the oppressed, and not in ways that place our exclusive or primary trust in police or military protection apart from confidence in God’s word that in welcoming strangers we welcome him. Another example that comes to mind would be war in general, and the war on terror in particular. Kingdom people cannot be lovers of war and cannot commit to hawkish policies—period! I am not saying that all who commit to the Kingdom of Jesus will be passivists and will disavow the use of force categorically. I am saying that the use of force must not compromise other clear Kingdom priorities and values. Force that is simply retaliatory or preemptive is on principle questionable for people committed to a Kingdom perspective. Military action as a first response would be similarly questionable. The disavowal of, or impatience with, diplomacy is likewise found wanting. OK, so what more specifically would be on Jesus’ Voter’s Guide?
Obviously the list could go on, but this is enough to indicate the tone and tenor of the guide. Now, please note that in all likelihood no viable candidate or party corresponds very well. The electoral situation is indeed complex and murky. As such, there is plenty of room for Christ followers to disagree and draw conclusions that are contrary to each other. So what should we do? Withdraw and not participate? Discern what corresponds most nearly? Determine what items are most critical now and see where closest alignment is? Collaborate with others in infiltrating all parties to work toward bringing all parties more into alignment with the Voter’s Guide in any way possible, so that no matter what party or candidate wins there is greater possibility that policies and decisions will be shaped more nearly in conformity to Jesus’ Kingdom?
Well, yes, exactly! You see the challenge and the possibility. With eyes of faith and hearts set on the things that inflame the heart of Jesus you will see the possibilities. And you will do something.
Bishop David Kendall serves as overseer of East Michigan, Gateway, Great Plains, Mid-America, North Central, North Michigan, Ohio, Southern Michigan, Wabash, and African Area Annual Conferences. He is coordinator of oversight for the Free Methodist World Ministries Center. He and his wife, Lavone, have three married daughters and reside in Greenville, Ill.
Posted by John Slider on 10/26/2010 at 09:55 AM in Election, Voting | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Posted by John Slider on 05/19/2010 at 09:34 PM in Election, Marine Corps, Political Philosophy, Politics | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)